Irbaris has been working on the “energy transition” since before the term was used; we have a long-term perspective on the pace and drivers of change. Even though the transformation of the energy sector is already happening, the final shape of the industry and the timing of specific changes remain very uncertain. 

Business planning typically relies on ‘business-as-usual’ projections. While these projections may represent a probable energy future, the likelihood of different outcomes is increasing. Despite this, over the past two decades, we have continually seen leading agencies underestimate the disruptive effects of new technologies and policy decisions.  Moreover, the impact of the possible changes on individual companies could be markedly different, even if they are in the same industry.

Furthermore, whilst the reality of the energy transition is increasingly recognised by mainstream forecasts and major companies, the potential for accelerated and disruptive “disconnects” is not yet fully recognised:

• Changes in mobility markets have already been accelerating and will drive major changes in transport fuel demand

• The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the future, even if the actual impact is not yet clear:

  • Accelerated technology implementation

  • Changed personal and business behaviours

  • Driven political and policy interventions that would have been inconceivable 6 months ago

• Climate science has found that much more significant and rapid changes must be made to the status quo if damaging climate change is to be avoided

• There are likely to be significant regional differences, partly because of different responses to the social and economic impacts of COVID-19

We use scenarios, detailed models and on-going monitoring to help clients understand the changing economy and ensure their business is still competitive as there is a transition to a low-carbon economy.  We enable our clients to address both near-term incremental targets as well as deliver the fundamental changes needed to be competitive over the long-term.